JOE COX: UK Fans Should Both Recognize It's Not Same Old Cats, But Pump the Brakes on 10-2 or 11-1

In the old world, Kentucky football was predicted for a 6-6 or 7-5 kind of season. You’d start with three easy non-conference games, figure on a win for Vandy, find a weak SEC West foe, and then scrounge for that elusive sixth win. Those days are gone. 2018 blew the glass ceiling out of UK football for those of us who didn’t know if anything better than 8-5 was actually possible. That said, Big Blue Nation would be wise to pump the brakes just a bit. Admittedly, there is no game on Kentucky’s schedule except the matchup at Georgia on October 16th where the Wildcats can't expect to compete. But to go from that truth to projections of 11-1 or 10-2, well, it’s a little hasty.

Under Mark Stoops, perhaps more than in memory, Kentucky has generally played well in the games it should win. But even within that, there are outliers. There are games that UK not only could win, but maybe even should win… but didn’t. For instance—a loss to Ole Miss as a 6.5-point favorite last year, a loss at home to Tennessee as a 1.5- point favorite in 2019, a loss in Knoxville as a 5-point favorite in 2018, a home loss to Ole Miss as a 3.5-point favorite in 2017, and a loss to Southern Miss as a 6-point favorite to open the 2016 season. Notice anything? There was one game each year in which Kentucky was a favorite and in every one (four of the five coming at home), it didn’t come out with the victory. So while 11 games are in the “possible” category, I’d note that roughly five games are in the “pretty certain” category and six more stretch from “probably win” to “have a shot to win.” Those are the ones that determine the season.

My flawed guesses? Here you go.

ULM: Win. Terrible non-conference opponent and you’ll hear me say exactly zero words about that, because with eight SEC games and an annual matchup with Louisville, you take your three easy wins.

Missouri: Loss. This is my guess for the one that gets away, 2021 edition. I don’t have the fear of Mississippi State that others do, but Drinkwitz has put together a solid team at Mizzou that doesn’t beat itself. Maybe it’s the passing game, maybe it’s the defense, but UK hits a rough spot here and loses this one by a field goal.

Chattanooga: Win. FCS team. Next.

At South Carolina: Win. I considered South Carolina for the loss that should be a win, but even for a road game, a team that’s starting the year with a graduate assistant coach playing QB doesn’t get much credit from me. Cats by 14.

Florida: Loss. I know. It’ll always be a yardstick. And this year shapes up better than most for Kentucky. But for years, I picked the Cats to win this game and they never did. Then they did once. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. This could be a next-step game. But the gap between “could” and “will be” matters.

LSU: Loss. This is the hardest game on the list for me to pick. Now, granted the Missouri game was hard, but it was the logical extension of the idea that there’s a game a year that UK should win that UK doesn’t win. This one feels very much like a 50/50 proposition. If Kentucky wants to pick up an extra win, this is probably the one. But I’m pumping the brakes and calling for a close loss.

At Georgia: Loss. Still not a fair fight.

At Mississippi State: Win. Maybe I’m just pig-headed on this one, but State looked awful last year and Mike Leach’s Air Raid stuff hasn’t convinced me that it will play well in the SEC. Cats by 10, getting things back on track.

Tennessee: Win. Another potential nominee for the game that gets away, but this UT squad looks like the gang that can’t shoot straight. Back-to-back wins over Tennessee are historically unusual, but Kentucky might rack up a handful in a row in this series.

At Vandy: Win. New coach, same pile of garbage. Fred G. Sanford couldn’t make something out of Vandy football.

New Mexico State: Win.

At Louisville: Like Tennessee, there’s a temptation to try to be difficult and suggest UK could stumble here. But the gap between UK and UL is not small and it’s not getting smaller. UK by 20.

An 8-4 mark won’t necessarily thrill the partisans, and it’ll be an 8-4 that ends up a play or two from 9-3 or 10-2. But cap it with a nice New Year’s Day bowl game—maybe the Outback, and Kentucky ends up the season in the lower rungs of the Top 25. Progress doesn’t always come in huge bursts like the 10-3 season after a 7-6 season back in 2018. But coming off an 8-5 and a 5-6 year, a 9-4 campaign puts Stoops in line to pass Bear Bryant’s UK win total early in 2022, and UK is a downshift at Georgia way from being in the thick of the SEC East hunt.

Joe Cox is contributing editor for KySportsStyle.com Magazine. He grew up in Letcher County and Bell County and has written or co-written nine books. His most recent, "A Fine Team Man: Jackie Robinson and the Lives He Changed," was released in February 2019 and can be ordered on Amazon or at many local bookstores. Joe is an attorney and lives in Logan County with his wife and children. You can reach him at jrcox004@gmail.com.