JOE COX: Kentucky Hoping To Avoid Starkville Stumble

The No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats have spent most of the 2021 season battling against their own history. After an off week, the Wildcats are back at it in a trip to Starkville, a place UK last won in 2008. The Wildcats are a slight visiting favorite over Mike Leach’s Mississippi State Bulldogs, but if Kentucky wants to continue the forward momentum of the season, they’ll need a workmanlike effort against a tough MSU passing game.

Mississippi State’s 375 passing yards per game are a testimony to a devastating offense. QB Will Rogers looks much different than the guy who threw two of MSU’s six interceptions last season in Lexington. The Bulldogs don't run the ball-- they average less than 20 rushing attempts per game and their 2.5 yards per carry is dead last in the SEC. But they’ll use short passes in place of runs, throw often, and display a surprisingly nice defense. State’s defense is 4th in the SEC in total yardage, a slot below Kentucky.

For Kentucky, a week off after a tough loss to Georgia gives UK an opportunity to refocus and perhaps heal. Senior receiver Josh Ali is expected back after missing a couple games, and massive defensive tackle Marquan McCall continues to get closer to returning to action. Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez struggled against Georgia, but he remains the SEC’s leading rusher. QB Will Levis has been increasingly sharper in UK’s last two games, avoiding turnovers which nearly doomed UK early in the season.

There’s always mixed feelings for UK in facing Mike Leach, who was Kentucky’s offensive coordinator under coach Hal Mumme in 1997 and 1998. Those teams put up a ton of passes and points, but it is worth noting that even with future No. 1 NFL pick Tim Couch, Mumme and Leach went 12-11 at UK. A year ago, Kentucky was off to an 0-2 start before righting the ship against State in a weird 24-2 win that saw six MSU interceptions and UK winning by three scores despite finishing with just 157 yards of total offense.

The 2021 season has already been successful for UK, but the next two weeks should hold the key to UK’s fate. Beat both State and then Tennessee, and UK is looking great for a New Year’s Six bowl bid. But Kentucky’s ability to finish will likely be sorely tested over the next two weeks.

If you’re looking for a single key, consider this. Much of Kentucky’s defensive success has come in slowing big plays. UK has given up just 21 plays covering 20+ yards on the season -- second best in the SEC. Likewise for seven plays covering 30+ yards, and UK is tied with Georgia for first in giving up just two plays covering 40+ yards. Offensively, State’s offense hasn’t excelled with the big play. They are 11th in 20+ yard plays, and dead last in 30+ yard plays. All of this is to say that Kentucky strength lines up well with State’s lack of big-play success. Can State dink and dunk down the field all day? Stats suggest not.

UK 27, Mississippi State 21

Around the SEC

It’s a short slate for the rest of the SEC, but here are my picks:

Georgia 34, Florida 13

Auburn 28, Ole Miss 27

Missouri 42, Vandy 17

Joe Cox is contributing editor for KySportsStyle.com Magazine. He grew up in Letcher County and Bell County and has written or co-written nine books. His most recent, "A Fine Team Man: Jackie Robinson and the Lives He Changed," was released in February 2019 and can be ordered on Amazon or at many local bookstores. Joe is an attorney and lives in Logan County with his wife and children. You can reach him at jrcox004@gmail.com.