For fans of a certain age, Florida is the measuring stick. UK beat the Gators when back in 1987, when I was seven years old. At that point, Kentucky trailed the all-time series 20-17. Neither UF nor UK were nationally relevant programs. But Florida was about to hire Steve Spurrier. Kentucky was about to hire Bill Curry. And it would be 31 years until Kentucky beat Florida.
Yes, for a generation Florida beat Kentucky every year. Many of the games were not in the faintest sense competitive. If you can remember 65-0 or 73-7 or 62-5, you know a world in which, frankly, Florida was very, very good at football and Kentucky was usually not at all good.
Of course, since Mark Stoops was hired in late 2012, the UK program has elevated to another plane. Kentucky has lapped South Carolina, Missouri, and certainly Vanderbilt. While Tennessee has been a sticky wicket, the Wildcats have split the last four games in that series, and certainly have more momentum than the Vols moving ahead. Which leaves Georgia and Florida. Kentucky hasn’t beaten UGA in its last 11 tries. And the Gators, far too many of those games lately have been 28-27 or 29-21 or something similar. Kentucky, particularly in Lexington, plays the Gators close, but struggles to get over the hump.
Of course, in 2018, UK ended its Florida drought with a 27-16 win in the Swamp. It’s not a coincidence that the season was UK’s best since 1977. It’s also not a coincidence that UK fell to Earth in the series in each of the last two years. For Kentucky to get ahead of 8-5 type seasons, they’ll have to get past the Gators.
Florida enters this game 3-1, and favored by just over a touchdown in Lexington. The Gators lost to top-ranked Alabama 31-29 two weeks ago. They’re fresh off a 38-14 beatdown of Tennessee. Unlike most previous Florida teams, this squad is pretty average in passing (11th in the SEC, 218 yards per game), but leads the SEC in rushing (322 yards per game, averaging 7.5 yards per carry). QB Emory Jones is the team’s leading rusher and is a competent passer. Backup QB Anthony Richardson has an otherworldly 275 rushing yards on 11 carries. The Gators pass for show, but run for dough.
Kind of like Kentucky. The Wildcats have to improve on a minus-9 turnover margin (worst in FBS football), but have the personnel to do so. Chris Rodriguez Jr. is the SEC’s leading rusher and Wan’Dale Robinson is the leading receiver. This feels like another potential proving ground for Kentucky… but it’s also Florida.
My general principle was that I wouldn’t pick UK to beat Florida until I lived to see them do it. Well, 2018 took care of that. This game will test Kentucky’s run defense, their offensive durability, and their focus and determination. The Wildcats have to find their A game. Before the season, I didn’t pick them to win this game. With the horrible turnover situation and Florida’s explosive run game, my gut says that Florida is fine. But Kentucky football has spent much of the last five years re-training my gut. Maybe they do it again on Saturday night.
UK 29, UF 28.
Here’s my weekly guess at the rest of the SEC:
Georgia 27, Arkansas 17
Tennessee 31, Missouri 28
Alabama 45, Ole Miss 24
South Carolina 28, Troy 6
Texas A&M 31, Mississippi State 13
Vanderbilt 10, Connecticut 7
Auburn 24, LSU 23
Joe Cox is contributing editor for KySportsStyle.com Magazine. He grew up in Letcher County and Bell County and has written or co-written nine books. His most recent, "A Fine Team Man: Jackie Robinson and the Lives He Changed," was released in February 2019 and can be ordered on Amazon or at many local bookstores. Joe is an attorney and lives in Logan County with his wife and children. You can reach him at jrcox004@gmail.com.
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