Before 2018, a Kentucky win over Florida in football was nearly unthinkable. It hadn’t happened since 1986. It wasn’t for lack of big plays. In 1998, Craig Yeast returned a kickoff 100 yards, caught a 99-yard touchdown and added another 75-yard score. Florida won anyway. Derek Abney returned a punt and a kickoff for touchdowns against the Gators in 2002. Andre Woodson threw for over 400 yards, moving up and down the field against the Gators in 2007. Kentucky lost all three of those games.
So how has Kentucky turned its luck around, picking up a pair of wins in the last four games with the Gators? It turns out the hidden secret was defense.
That 1986 win over Florida was a 10-3 game. From 1997 to 2017, Kentucky held Florida under 20 points just once, in a tough 14-9 loss in 2015 that easily could have been the game that ended the UK losing streak to the Gators.
Last four years? Florida has 16, 29, 34, and 13 points against Kentucky. Want to guess which two of those games were UK’s wins?
Basically, the question heading into Saturday isn’t how many points Will Levis and the Kentucky offense can put up—although that 14-9 loss demonstrates it’s not impossible that the defense can deliver and the offense can waste a great opportunity. It’s unlikely, though.
The question is whether Kentucky’s defense can slow Florida QB Anthony Richardson and the Gator offense.
Florida scrapped out a 29-26 win over No. 7 Utah last Saturday in the Swamp. The game was as close as the score indicates—Florida won the yardage battle 451-446. Richardson was competent as a passer—17 for 24 for 168 yards. But the Gators did their damage on the ground, rushing for 283 yards on 39 carries. The big factor in the ground game was Richardson, who rushed for 106 yards and 3 scores on 11 carries.
Running the ball well isn’t new for Florida. Last year, the Gators headed into the Kentucky game having rushed for 400, 363, 244, and 283 yards in their first four games—two of which were against Alabama and Tennessee. Richardson had 275 rushing yards in the first two games on 2021, but struggled in SEC play.
Last year, Kentucky held the Gators to 171 yards (and 4.4 yards per carry) on the ground. And something broke in Florida that night when the Wildcats took them down. They topped 200 yards only twice the rest of the year—against FCS Samford and in the Gasparilla Bowl against Central Florida.
Florida is highly regarded this week—ranked No. 12 in the AP poll (after starting the season unranked). Richardson is as talented as any dual-threat QB in the nation. Will Levis and the Wildcat offense will have to fight for yards and points.
But the game will be decided in the trenches. If Kentucky can hold Florida to something like 171 rushing yards (and 4.4 yards per carry), then the Wildcats will be where they want to be in the fourth quarter. And for all of Florida’s recent success and hype, it’s all just more fuel for the Mark Stoops' anti-hype train. Pump up UK’s opponent, the Wildcats love it. Tell them they have no chance. They live to prove that wrong.
Kentucky can slow Florida enough on the ground to pull the mild upset. In fact, it’ll be the defense that makes the big stand late to preserve the victory.
UK 21, Florida 17.
Other SEC Predictions:
Alabama 49, Texas 10
Arkansas 31, South Carolina 17
Wake Forest 45, Vanderbilt 20
Kansas State 31, Missouri 21
Texas A&M 52, Appalachian State 10
Tennessee 38, Pittsburgh 35
Georgia 52, Samford 0
Ole Miss 49, Central Arkansas 6
Auburn 35, San Jose State 13
LSU 45, Southern 7
Mississippi State 38, Arizona 24
Joe Cox is contributing editor for KySportsStyle.com Magazine. He grew up in Letcher County and Bell County and has written or co-written nine books. His most recent, "A Fine Team Man: Jackie Robinson and the Lives He Changed," was released in February 2019 and can be ordered on Amazon or at many local bookstores. Joe is an attorney and lives in Logan County with his wife and children. You can reach him at jrcox004@gmail.com.
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